[討論] 97W JTWC：LOW

作者kadar (卡卡達達)

看板TY_Research

標題[討論] 97W JTWC：LOW

時間Thu Jun 26 12:13:48 2025

ABPW10 PGTW 260230 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/260230Z-260600ZJUN2025// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251951ZJUN2025// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251952ZJUN2025// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ ... B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.9N 142.7E, APPROXIMATELY 147 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A 252320Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PEAK WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 97W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST WITH GFS GRADUALLY INCREASING MORE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH GEFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THAT OF ECENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. https://i.meee.com.tw/mCyTSee.jpg